Экономические последствия Brexit: результаты и перспективы
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.52575/2687-0967-2026-53-1-222-231Ключевые слова:
Великобритания, ЕС, Brexit, анализ последствий выхода, экономическая дезинтеграцияАннотация
В статье рассматриваются последствия выхода Великобритании из Европейского Союза для экономического развития страны. Проведен компаративный анализ различных сценарных прогнозов влияния Brexit на макроэкономические параметры британской экономики. Авторы сопоставляют их с реальными изменениями в объеме производства, внешней торговле, инвестиционных потоках, динамике занятости производительности труда. Количественные данные свидетельствуют о сокращении совокупного объема производства на 6 %, что эквивалентно упущенным 140 млрд фунтов стерлингов. Выявлено влияние нетарифных ограничений на падение торгового оборота с европейскими странами, которое не удалось компенсировать переориентациией торговых потоков на глобальный рынок. Авторы проанализировали настроения британского общества, выявив разочарование британцев в Brexit: в настоящее время более 56 % из них считают ошибкой выход из ЕС. Авторы делают общий вывод, что отделение Великобритании от континентального блока представляет собой продолжающийся процесс экономического и институционального размежевания, долгосрочные последствия которого будут негативно сказываться на экономике страны на протяжении следующего десятилетия, а продолжающаяся общественная дискуссия вокруг Brexit будет актуализировать вопрос отношений с ЕС в политической повестке.
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Breinlich H. 2024. Die wirtschaftlichen Folgen des Brexits. Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, 73: 40–46. https://doi.org/10.1515/zfwp-2024-2007.
Chazzaoui T. 2025. The Impact of Brexit on International Logistics: Challenges and Opportunities for Businesses. Brazilian Journal of Development. 11(5). 01–10. https://doi.org/10.34117/bjdv11n5-066.
Gao Y., Cui F. 2025. Brexit and Pound's International Trade Competitiveness: A Counterfactual Analysis. World Econ. 48: 1174–1191. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13685.
Du J., Shepotylo O. 2024. Brexit and the Services Trade–A Longitudinal Analysis. Journal of Service Research, 29: 115–131. https://doi.org/10.1177/10946705241271384.
Du J., Shepotylo O., Yuan X. 2025. How did the Brexit Uncertainty Impact Services Exports of UK firms? Journal of International Business Policy, 8: 80–104. https://doi.org/10.1057/s42214-024-00202-6.
Javorcik B., Kett B., Stapleton K., O’Kane L. 2025. Unravelling Deep Integration: Local Labour Market Effects of the Brexit Vote. Journal of the European Economic Association. URL: Unravelling Deep Integration: Local Labour Market Effects of the Brexit Vote - Journal of the European Economic Association, 2025 (accessed: 15.10.2025). https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvaf040.
Jin N. 2025. Impacts of Brexit on Corporate Productivity in the UK: A Regionalism Perspective. The Annals of Regional Science. 74. URL: Impacts of Brexit on corporate productivity in the UK: a regionalism perspective | The Annals of Regional Science | Springer Nature Link (accessed: 15.10.2025) https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-025-01380-8.
Kaya A., Low H., Millard S. 2025. Brexit and Non-Tariff Barriers: Effects on UK Business Investment and Productivity. The Productivity Institute. URL: https://www.productivity.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/WP057-Brexit-and-Non-Tariff-Barriers-August-2025.pdf (accessed: 15.10.2025).
McAreavey R., Wright K., Donaldson R. 2025. Social Justice in Post‐Conflict Societies: Lessons From Northern Ireland. The British Journal of Sociology, 76: 645–656. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-4446.13207.
Mcbride C. Has Brexit Really Harmed UK Trade? Countering the Office for Budget Responsibility’s claims. 2023. Institute of Economic Affairs. URL: https://iea.org.uk/publications/has-brexit-really-harmed-uk-trade-countering-the-office-of-budgetary-responsibilitys-claims/ (accessed: 15.10.2025).
Onaran Ö. 2025. Uncertainty Kills the Cake: Economy and Society After Brexit and Beyond. Border Crossing. June 2025. 15(3), 113–120 https://doi.org/10.33182/bc.v15i3.2927.
Portes J. 2025. From EU Expansion to Brexit: Free Movement and the UK from 2004 to 2021. Border Crossing. June 2025. 15(3): 3–15. https://doi.org/10.33182/bc.v15i3.2919.
Shi S. 2025. An Analytical Study of Brexit as a Turning Point in the UK's Economic Policies in the European Region. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences, 75–80. https://doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/2025.22112.
Song J. 2024. Research on the Effects of Brexit on the UK Economy. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences, 229–235. https://doi.org/10.54254/2754-1169/60/20231215.
Springford J. 2024. The Gap between the Brexit Reset Rhetoric and the Reality. Centre for European Reform. URL: https://www.cer.eu/insights/gap-between-brexit-reset-rhetoric-and-reality (accessed: 15.10.2025).
Spyrakou V. 2025. Functional, not Federal – why Pragmatism Now Defines the EU-UK Relationship. The London School of Economics and Political Science. URL: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2025/11/25/functional-not-federal-why-pragmatism-now-defines-the-eu-uk-relationship/ (accessed: 27.11.2025).
Walters S. 2026. Brexit has Made Everything from Economy to Immigration Worse in Britain, New Poll Reveals. Independent. URL: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-economy-immigration-eu-starmer-b2895257.html (accessed: 08.01.2026).
Zhu Y. 2024. Research on Political and Economic Trends before and after Brexit: Take the Position of the Pound and Changes in the Exchange Rate as an Example. Journal of Education, Humanities and Social Sciences, 31: 140–145. https://doi.org/10.54097/yxzc5p07.
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