Economic Consequences of Brexit: Results and Prospects

Abstract

The article examines the impact of the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union on the country’s economic development. A comparative analysis of various scenario forecasts of the impact of Brexit on the macroeconomic parameters of the British economy has been carried out. The authors compare them with actual changes in the volume of production, foreign trade, investment flows, employment dynamics, and labor productivity. Quantitative data indicate a six percent reduction in total output, which is equivalent to a loss of 140 billion pounds. The impact of non-tariff restrictions on the decline in trade turnover with European countries has been revealed, which failed be compensated by the reorientation of trade flows in the global market. The authors have analyzed the mood of British society, revealing British disappointment in Brexit: currently, more than 56% of them consider leaving the EU to be a mistake. The findings make it possible to conclude that the separation of Great Britain from the continental bloc is an ongoing process of economic and institutional separation, the long-term consequences of which will negatively affect the country’s economy over the next decade, and the ongoing public discussion around Brexit will bring the issue of relations with the EU to the political agenda.