The Transformation of Turkey's Foreign Policy towards the Idea of a “Blue Homeland” and its Execution in the Context of “Unstable Equilibrium”

Abstract

This article examines the transformation of Turkey's foreign policy under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan through the lens of the "Mavi Vatan" concept. The study traces the development of this doctrine, which started as a naval strategy and has since evolved into a broader geopolitical framework shaping Ankara's position in the Aegean, Black Sea, and Eastern Mediterranean regions.The theoretical basis of the research lies in the author's concept of "unstable equilibrium ", which explains Turkey's seemingly contradictory foreign policy actions. Unlike the traditional balance of power approach aimed at maintaining stability in the international system, the author argues that Turkey's strategy is based on intentionally maintaining controlled instability. Under this framework, pro-Western and pro-Eastern policies are systematically balanced against each other without leading to a definitive strategic alignment.. Based on comparative and discourse analysis, the study demonstrates that the inconsistency in Turkish foreign policy is more structural than situational. It pays particular attention to the relationship between the normative discourse promoted by the Turkish leadership and the practical implementation of its maritime strategy. The research identifies the main risks associated with this model, such as increased diplomatic isolation, rising military expenditures, and a decline in investment attractiveness.